China’s Submarine Surge: A Game-Changer for Global Naval Power?
China is rapidly expanding its submarine fleet, outpacing the United States in production speed and tonnage, according to a recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). But here's where it gets controversial: Is this shift in naval power a legitimate concern for Washington, or is it an overblown threat? Let’s dive into the details and explore why this development is sparking debates among defense experts.
Over the past five years, China has dramatically accelerated its production of nuclear-powered submarines, launching more subs than the U.S. in both quantity and size. Between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 submarines totaling 79,000 tons, compared to the U.S.’s 7 subs and 55,500 tons. This marks a stark reversal from the 2016-2020 period, when China’s submarine production lagged significantly behind the U.S. The IISS report, based on satellite imagery of Chinese shipyards, highlights a buildup that includes both ballistic-missile and attack submarines for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
And this is the part most people miss: While China’s submarine launches are impressive, these numbers represent vessels that are not yet fully operational. The U.S. still maintains a substantial lead in active-duty nuclear-powered submarines, with 65 subs compared to China’s 12 as of early 2025. However, China’s rapid progress raises questions about the long-term balance of naval power in the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s submarine fleet expansion is not limited to nuclear-powered vessels. The country also boasts the world’s largest fleet of conventionally powered submarines, with 46 boats. In contrast, the U.S. relies exclusively on nuclear-powered subs, which offer greater endurance without the need for regular refueling. To support this growth, Beijing has significantly expanded the Huludao shipyard in northern China, as noted in the IISS report titled “Boomtime at Bohai.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. is struggling to meet its submarine-building goals. A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report reveals that U.S. shipyards are delivering only 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia-class attack submarines annually, falling short of the target of two per year. The Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine program is also facing delays, with the first vessel not expected until 2028. Bold question for our readers: Is the U.S. doing enough to maintain its naval dominance, or is it risking a strategic disadvantage?
China’s submarine advancements are not just about numbers. The IISS report highlights the launch of two Type 094 ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) at the Huludao shipyard, capable of firing nuclear-armed missiles. These subs contribute to China’s growing nuclear triad, which includes land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers. Even more concerning, China is developing the Type-096 SSBN, expected to enter production this decade and further enhance its strategic capabilities.
Beyond ballistic-missile subs, the PLAN has launched at least six guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) in the past five years, equipped with vertical launch systems (VLS) capable of firing advanced anti-ship missiles. However, the IISS report offers a silver lining for Washington: Chinese submarines likely lag behind U.S. and European designs in terms of quality and stealth. Controversial interpretation: Does quantity truly trump quality in modern naval warfare?
Despite this, experts warn that in naval combat, sheer numbers often tip the scales in favor of the larger force. China already possesses the world’s largest fleet of destroyers, frigates, and surface combatants, raising concerns about its ability to project power in the region. Meanwhile, U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan has openly criticized the state of U.S. naval construction, calling it “a mess” with programs running late and over budget.
Looking ahead, the CRS report predicts a dip in U.S. attack submarine numbers, dropping to 47 by 2030 as older vessels are retired. A rebound to 50 subs is not expected until 2032, and even that depends on meeting construction goals. The planned sale of Virginia-class subs to Australia under the AUKUS agreement could further strain U.S. fleet expansion efforts. Thought-provoking question: How should the U.S. and its allies respond to China’s submarine surge?
In conclusion, China’s rapid submarine production is reshaping the global naval landscape, challenging the U.S.’s long-standing maritime dominance. While quality and operational readiness remain in the U.S.’s favor for now, China’s growing fleet poses a strategic challenge that cannot be ignored. We want to hear from you: Is China’s submarine buildup a legitimate threat, or is it an overreaction to a still-developing capability? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
