Hold onto your helmets, college football fans, because the 2026 season is already sparking debates—even before the first kickoff! On3’s Brett McMurphy has dropped his way-too-early bowl projections, and the Texas Longhorns are right in the thick of it. But here’s where it gets controversial: McMurphy predicts Texas will land as the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff (CFP), but their journey might be shorter than fans hope. Let’s break it down in a way that even newcomers to the sport can follow.
McMurphy’s projections, released earlier this week (https://www.on3.com/news/2026-way-too-early-college-football-bowl-projections-full-list-of-matchups-playoff-predictions/), place the Longhorns in a first-round CFP matchup against No. 12 UTSA, the highest-ranked Group of Six team. This isn’t just any game—it’s a rematch of a regular-season clash scheduled for September 19 in Austin. Texas emerges victorious in this projection, but the real question is: Can they go all the way?
And this is the part most people miss: McMurphy doesn’t think so. He predicts Texas will fall to the No. 4 Miami Hurricanes in the quarterfinals, specifically the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. This would mark the first meeting between these two teams since the 1991 Cotton Bowl, where Miami handed Texas a crushing 46-3 defeat. Is history doomed to repeat itself, or can the Longhorns flip the script?
McMurphy’s full 12-team CFP field includes some familiar powerhouses:
1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Texas Tech
7. Indiana
8. Oregon
9. Utah
10. Texas A&M
11. Oklahoma
12. UTSA
In his final four, Notre Dame defeats Miami in the Orange Bowl, while Georgia edges out Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The Fighting Irish are crowned national champions in Las Vegas on January 25, 2027. But is Notre Dame truly the team to beat, or are there sleeper contenders waiting in the wings?
For Texas fans, the projections offer a mix of hope and caution. While the Longhorns make the CFP, their path is far from easy. And here’s a thought-provoking question: With a tough schedule and stiff competition, is a No. 5 seed the best Texas can aim for, or should they be shooting higher?
Beyond the CFP, McMurphy’s projections place nearly every team on Texas’ 2026 schedule in a postseason game, except for Mississippi State and Arkansas. Here’s a glimpse of some notable matchups:
- Rose Bowl (Jan. 1, 2027): No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
- Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15, 2027): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Ohio State
- Gator Bowl: Tennessee vs. SMU
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Florida vs. Wisconsin
- Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Penn State
These projections are sure to spark debates among fans and analysts alike. Do you agree with McMurphy’s take on Texas’ CFP run, or do you think the Longhorns have what it takes to go further? Let us know in the comments—this is one conversation you won’t want to miss!
